As the accounting issues between the US and China escalates investors in China concept stocks aren’t the only ones scratching their heads. Equally troubled are the country’s VC and PE firms who were just starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel with YY’s recent IPO.
People may be underestimating the potential losses for China if the US markets were to be closed off, in particular when it comes to the technology sector. There are currently many young promising Chinese tech companies, but most of them have at some point taken in foreign capital to grow, which means they will have a VIE structure in place.
A VIE structure and foreign shareholders will automatically rule out a domestic listing, so the only possibility is to go abroad for an IPO exit or try to find M&A options in China, something that has been very slow moving so far. A foreign exit has traditionally meant one of two places for up and coming Chinese tech companies: US or HK.
The problem we could face now is that the US exchanges will close completely for Chinese companies, and HK’s new VIE regulations means it should be all but impossible to list the company their either. At that point we’re left with the “secondary exchanges” for Chinese companies, most likely London or Singapore.
However, these exchanges don’t have the same history of taking in Chinese companies, much less the soon-to-be-big tech companies and their disclosure rules for VIEs are relatively lacking. These factors combined mean that the ambiguity and risk both for investors and the company that wants to IPO increases, and if there’s one thing Chinese companies and investors in them don’t need right now it’s more ambiguity and risk.
This development poses very real problems for the country’s VC and PE firms, and in turn for innovation and new company creation in some vital Chinese industries.
A lot of the debate seems centred around the issues this will raise for investors and the US role as central capital market, but China does not walk away scot-free from this either. And decreased private investment in key innovation industries is not what China needs right now.